Malcolm Turnbull had his shot at leadership of the Liberal Party and bollocksed it up royally, but no-one would believe for a second that means he’s given up on the idea — and nor should he. In Canberra’s political firmament he’s the only star on either side with the combination of balls and brains, chutzpah and charisma, vision and intellect that has been missing from Australian politics since Paul Keating’s demise. Someone people can vote for without wanting to punch themselves in the throat before they leave the ballot box. Despite all the yelping in the mainstream media, neither the asylum seekers nor gay marriage will decide an election. They’re issues that politicians can squeal about in Question Time and press conferences. They give the Alan Jones crowd something to get all twisty knickered about, but most voters are not as stupid as politicians and the media think. Essential Media did some polling in June this year on the issues that will decide voting intention: 61% rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by the health system (49%) and jobs/protection of local industries (32%). Addressing climate change rated only 15% and treatment of asylum seekers a lowly 5%.

We’re an apathetic bloody lot really.

But it presents a problem to the two major parties trying desperately to create wedge issues voters can use to tell the difference between them.

The ALP has been haemorrhaging support since the 2010 election, but it’s difficult to know why. If the economy and health care really are the two most important issues to voters, the government should be doing a lot better in the polls than it is. Australia’s economy is ticking along better than most other places in the world and surely the Rudd/Gillard governments deserves at least some credit for that. They’re certainly making a strong attempt to reform the health care system, but Essential’s poll in late August says that over 70% of respondents have heard little or nothing about it, so they’re not gaining any ground there either. Maybe the lefty wailing about News Ltd’s sustained campaign against the government has some truth to it, but even the slightly less biased commercial TV news stations don’t seem to be able to convince their viewers that Labor is doing anything effective on any issue.

It all comes down to credibility and, like virginity, once you’ve given away that “precious gift” you’ll never get it back. Somewhere between Copenhagen and the leadership spill, Julia Gillard gave up her credibility and no amount of overly rehearsed protestations will be able to drag her out of that particular abyss.

Of course, Tony Abbott isn’t really doing much better. The man who tried so hard to position himself as a conviction politician seems to have conviction about only two things: that he should be Prime Minister and that Bob Brown is going to force Julia Gillard to grind all our babies into a fine paste and serve them up as crudités at the heroin sponsored gay marriages we’ll all be forced to make under the imminent One World Government.

He’s doing a great line in getting the more gullible of his constituents to ascribe to these convictions, but the only reason it’s got a chance of working come election time is that conviction about something, even an insane something, may stick slightly less in the electoral craw than the public perception of Gillard’s faithless ineffectuality.

Abbott’s leadership has dragged the party too far into Far Right territory, firming up support from the conservative right (who, let’s face it, don’t really have anywhere else to go anyway) and losing too many of the moderate voters. It’s too late for Abbott to unwind that now, what little credibility he has left would completely disappear if he tried to take a more moderate stance on social issues.

So where do the moderates, the mostly silent majority of the population who just want to pay their taxes, run their businesses and not have to pay too much attention to Canberrian shenanigans go? The Greens are an option for disenfranchised lefties and they do provide some moral fibre in Canberra’s refined sugar diet of reactionary poll driven politics, but they’re nowhere near getting enough votes to present as a serious alternative government. Nor, when pressed on economic matters are they anywhere near credible.

This lack of sensible options was what led to the resounding ‘meh’ response to the 2010 federal election.

The ALP under Gillard is pretty much dead in the water. As much as Gillard probably can’t win the next election, even the dim-witted machine men of ALP politics must know that another leadership spill would do nothing but turn them into an electoral laughing stock. Policy action hasn’t helped, economic management hasn’t helped, the ship is sinking and the only reason the rats are still clinging on is that they have nowhere left to run.

A leadership spill in the opposition on the other hand, doesn’t do the same kind of damage. The Libs have come a long way from their hysterical identity crisis after the 2010 election, but while Abbott’s attack dog style of leadership has helped them define what they’re firmly against (anyone else being in government) it doesn’t define what it is that they’re for. His lack of economic literacy (which confused Howard’s legacy of economic liberalism and social conservatism with a flat conservative outlook on everything) loses points with the liberal party’s traditional corporate and small business base. A new leader, one who could articulate a vision for the Liberal party beyond just winning the next election, has a chance to redefine the party in the eyes of the electorate.

The only realistic leadership alternatives for Liberal are Joe Hockey and Malcolm Turnbull. Hockey is not a completely terrible option, his bonhomie is electorally appealing, his years of political experience would stand him in good stead and his popularity in the party room means he’s probably the most likely to have a united party behind him. Against him though, is his lack of economic credibility and, possibly, the fact that he doesn’t really seem to want it. The Prime Ministership is not a job for anyone with a young family, something he seems to be only too well aware of and, at only 45 years of age, he has still plenty of time. He doesn’t appear to be a particularly impatient man, one suspects he has a 15 year plan filed away somewhere, with PM scheduled in for around 2020.

Which leaves us with Malcolm Turnbull. Ah, Malcolm, how do I love thee, let me count the ways… One of the very few senior ministers in parliament with a genuine understanding of how the economy operates, vast experience of the world outside politics, small ‘l’ liberal values and possessing that indefinable sense of gravitas that we want in a national leader, Turnbull is everything the Liberal party needs to reconnect with its base. Arrogant and egotistical? Well, sure, but can you do successful leadership, particularly in federal politics, without it? A Prime Minister overburdened with self doubt and humility doesn’t have the cojones required to face down the shouty minority groups constantly trying to force their way into mainstream politics. Say what you will in criticism of John Howard (and there is a lot to say there) one of the finest moments in Australian political history was little Johnny staring down a mob of howling rednecks and refusing to give them back their guns because he wouldn’t back away from what was right in favour of what was easy.

Turnbull’s political inexperience, which led him to follow Godwin Grech down a particularly stupid rabbit hole and the temperamental impatience that alienated much of the party room is going to stand in his way. As will the far right’s fear of losing their dog whistles under a moderate leader. It’s likely that the Minchinites would rather hold sway over a party out of government that let the small l Liberal rule in government. The back benchers, who are fairly sure they can hold onto their seats under Abbott’s leadership, don’t have the impetus for a spill yet, but there’s some nervous shuffling going on and Turnbull is not the kind of man who will happily play second fiddle to anyone he sees as intellectually inferior - which, to be fair, is pretty much everyone.

Turnbull is not stupid enough to thrust himself into the centre of the carbon tax debate but, as happened with the GST, once the carbon tax is implemented the shouting will die out, as everyone realises that actually, not much has changed. At that point, with 12 to 18 months to go before the next election, when the opposition realise that without an attack point they really don’t have much to campaign on, Malcolm Turnbull will be there, like a white knight on a policy charger. If he is a smart as he thinks he is, he’ll have learned from past mistakes, won over enough of the old party hacks to shore up his lack of political experience and be ready to ride off into the sunset with a newly invigorated Liberal party swooning across his saddle bow.

He’ll bring the party back to the centre inhabited by the top of the electoral bell curve and win back all John Howard battlers, the small business owners and New Australians. He’s not going to lose the far right, because where are they going to go? And he’ll also collect all those people who once thought of themselves as dyed in the wool Labor voters but now know that the Labor party has no idea who they are.

Then, after the election, he’ll have some idea of what he wants to do with the government.

On the other hand, if the party room, with standard political short-sightedness, decides to stay with the devil they know Tony Abbott will probably win the next election. But Bill Shorten will win the one after that.

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