Liberals At Work
The Libs are riding high in the polls, but they didn’t get there with careful planning and detailed policies. They did it by implanting into the media, and from there into the electorate, fear and relentless negativity towards the Gillard government. Despite the screeching about boats and carbon, however, the issue that matters most to people, the one that is most likely to dictate their vote, is employment and job security. And on that particular issue, the Libs have nowhere to go. Like the person atop Mount Everest, any step they take in any direction — left or right, forward or back — will be a step down.
They’ve been burnt by the business community, who abandoned them over WorkChoices in 2007, but they can’t credibly promise a system that will protect people’s jobs without getting business even further offside. They’ve been vindicated in their approach by high polls, but in policy terms they’re stuck. Whether they can stay stuck and win is an open question, but, in my opinion, it’s highly doubtful.
When Labor looked like losing the 1996 elections the labour movement were shouting out warnings that a Howard government would be disastrous for Australian workers. They couldn’t make that stick because union membership (as a measure of unions’ credibility) was in free-fall, and because Howard’s persona was all about reassurance, stability and certainty. The rise of skilled manual workers as independent contractors meant that people once considered solidly Labor were more inclined to vote Liberal through self-identification as independent entrepreneurs, with all the tax breaks and other incentives attached to such status and, naturally, they were less likely to be union members.
The waterfront confrontation was an aberration that proved the wider point: the union won a symbolic victory over dogs and balaclavas, while the government’s legislation remained in place and waterfront productivity went up. Everyone, apparently, was a winner.
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